Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Challenges for Akhilesh Yadav after winning the internal battle?

Thanks to the Election Commission's decision for giving a new life to the Samajwadi Party, which as on the verge of a vertical split. Giving the Cycle symbol to Akhilesh faction, the Election Commission has respected the sentiment of the Samajwadi Party cadres.

The party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav seems to have the limited choice of either fall in line or facing an disgraceful end to his political career. It is true that Akhilesh Yadav have won the internal battle in the party, but the real victory in Uttar Pradesh is very far. Below are the some of the challenges Akhilesh Yadav may face.

1. Tie up for an effective alliance
As the election in Uttar Pradesh is near, the SP has started talks with Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal. An alliance with Congress, will certainly help the party in consolidating the upper caste votes and the RLD, who has the influence in western UP can give the Samajwadi Party a major boost, but there will be definitely a dispute on the streets within the parties.

There are many strong seats that have mutual relation from both the SP and the Congress, where both the parties will like to have their chances. Hence both the parties will be in hectic negotiation for those specific mutual seats. Any hasty alliance might make it hard to convert the large social strength into the required votes even after the accumulating a big social base under the one umbrella.

2. Problems of dissidents in the Party
Many of his uncle Shivpal's supporters are likely to not getting the tickets, this will be a big problem for Akhilesh, even if Mulayam Singh Yadav have decided to bury his aspirations.

There is a possibilites that many local leaders are likely to contest as independents to upset their parent party. In a multi-party contest like Uttar Pradesh, even a small fraction of votes can lead to defeat for any party. How effectively Akhilesh Yadav and his party cadres manage the inevitable dissidents may determine the future of Akhilesh.

3. Muslim jibe at Akhilesh by Mulayam Singh Yadav
A disgraced and dispirited Mulayam Singh had played the last role of the dice, during the continuous family fued, by claiming that Akhilesh has not done enough for the Muslims in the Uttar Pradesh. The opposition party or specialy Mayawati will definetly aggressively leverage this remarks to take away the minority votes from Samajwadi Party.

The MY(Muslim and Yadav) equation of Samajwadi Party has been the main key to electoral success of the SP and if any erosion to that equation may harm the party.

4. Uttar Pradesh unequal development.
Akhilesh Yadav's, being an incumbent, own performance will be for test in this election. The law and order situation degrading, the corruption in the system and the bureaucracy will all come to challenge the chief minister.

While Akhilesh Yadav may have come out perfectly in the Cycle war, he may have to criticise his SP family again on the campaign trail to defend his legacy, this may spark a fresh row within the Yadav clan.

5. Stopping the BJP
The last but not the least, the Akhilesh Yadav will have to definitely face all the electoral, might of BJP's well-planned strategy that is being led by PM Modi, which blew away Samajwadi Party in 2014 in the Uttar Pradesh.

But the current situation is little different now from 2014. The BJP, as it was in Bihar assembly election, have no any state lavel face and is totally depends on PM Modi's charisma.

Although, Akhilesh Yadav is neither a development messaiah like no other than Bihar CM Nitish nor does he has an inclusively caste alliance like in Bihar by Lalu and Nitish tie up. The Congress vote has also been managed to effectively put in one basket by Nitish Kumar. Also the Congress in Bihar has been on the footnote for decades but here in UP, the Congress started the campaign and then they are leaving it midway and because of the possibilities of an alliance.

The key to success of Akhilesh will be How well he manages the each and every constituency, even those constituency where his allies will fighting. It is true that Akhilesh Yadav have got a headstart but this is the just beginning of the game. The leader like PM Modi and Mayawati will never let him make passage for free.

-Analysis by DirtyPolitics

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