Monday, March 13, 2017

How BJP won the Uttar Pradesh?

No any party has so decisively controlled the power in both the Delhi and UP, the heart of the Indian politics in the last 25 years. Rarely any party has been able to expand its social base, in such short time and in such an unprecendented manner, across Hindu castes.

No any party has exercised such a dominance in the national politics since the 1960s. The Bhartiya Janata Party was strong in the west, in the east it was expanding, but it did not had a state in the core heartland, from Delhi all the way to West Bengal.

And therefore the big question arise.
What is real factor behind BJP win in the UP?

— The Modi Government
The decision of demonetisation by the Modi government has been broadly hailed by the people of Uttar Pradesh. The voters thought that the PM Modi had delivered on what he promised, that he had taken on the rich and the corrupt, and the gains accrued from the exercise would be eventually transferred to the poor people.

It seems that from Meerut to Gorakhpur, from Bareilly to Balia, from Shravasti to Jhansi, the faith in Modi did not subsided therefore the voters gave a solid answer to whom would they vote for.

— ModiJi itself
Some people say he was a decisive leader while some others people say he had expanded the india's image out of India. Some think that he is a "Zameen ke neta hain", he has arise from the ground. Many of the people indicated to his tangible schemes like Jan Dhan Yojana or Ujawala and some belive that he would bring real Development.

But the majority of the people did not even have any specific answers. It was only an emotional connect that had with PM Modi, it was also just deep and abiding faith that this man meant well and this is the only man who would transform India and the Uttar Pradesh. And when the PM Modi promised to the people of UP, when he was campaigning intensively, that if the government at the center and state would same, the development will be very smoothly in the state, therefore the faith in PM Modi seems to have doubled.

— Targeted Yadavs and Jatavs, non-Yadav OBCs

The BJP had assumed that the Muslims, a large section of Yadavs and Jatavs would not vote for their party that means they can play crucial role in the election. This means the total 55-60% of the voters would turn the BJP's future, if the party succeed to attract them towards BJP. Therefore in order to do this, the BJP had expanded its social base in the Uttar Pradesh.

Earlier too the BJP had succeed in the UP when the party had constructed a coalition of upper castes and the non-Yadav OBCs. On the basis of that alliance the BJP had won with majority in the state and the Kalyan Singh was a leader of that alliance within the broader Hindutva umbrella.

It repeated again in 2014 in the Lok Sabha election. Besides other factors, the Modiji's own OBC identity attracted the backward communities of the state. The BJP's upper caste base stayed with the party and the dalit sub communities too drifted to the BJP because of the Modiji.

To achieve the target the BJP had embarked on a three pronged strategy. BJP appointed a Keshav Prasad Maurya (from non-Yadav OBC community) as the state president; Appointed office bearers in the districts from these communities; The party given the highest number of the tickets from these communities.

The party had also expanded in the rural areas due to this party had put candidates in the panchayat elections last year. Therefore the party created a pool of the active leaders in the rural areas across the districts. The party had exercised the risky ticket distribution in this election. The BJP had given younger leaders from all the communities and it had picked from Brahmins, Banias, Thakurs, OBCs and Dalits.

With this extremely careful and planned strategy, the BJP has not only won the election but it transformed its own party's character and created a generation of leaders who will stand the party in the good stead for the years.

— Hindu Card
Despite of Modi's brand and the well planned construction of multi-caste alliance would probably not have been enough, therefore the BJP very carefully played the Hindu card too.

It was very difficult for the BJP to win the election in the states like Uttar Pradesh where a substantial Muslim presence so it had to rely on the rest of the electorate of the state. To achive this, the party had internally included the Hindu castes and since it did not give any tickets to the Muslims, the party had enough room to do so in the Uttar Pradesh.

The BJP had also included a flavour of the communal polarisation in its campaign. The people can remember when the PM Modi himself talked about Diwali and Ramzan, Kabristan and Shamshanghat. Amit Shah had also directly accusing the SP government for dispensing development benefits based on the religion and caste in many of his rally.

There was also annoyance at both the alliance and the BSP's efforts to atract the Muslims and to make them the center piece of their respective campaigns. But the result showed that the Muslims vote appears to have splitted between the alliance and the BSP.

No one can win election only with the his stragety but it can win with the mistakes which is done by the other parties. The Samajwadi Party's family fued was a mistakes which help the BJP. The delay in ticket distribution also cost the Samajwadi Party and the alliance with Congress yielded a little benefit.

It seems that Mayawati have been left with the little besides her core vote. The Mayawati's fact, that she sits in Delhi and Lucknow and barely travels to the districts when in opposition, has come back to haunt her.

And therefore the combination of Modi magic, social engineering, caste management, smart ticket distribution strategy, use of Hindu card and the mistakes made by opposition has strengthened the BJP that resulted into BJP victory in the assembly election.

The verdict of Uttar Pradesh will definitely redefine the Indian politics...

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